Predicting Baby Names?

[hermione-vader.livejournal.com]

I just found this article about how Nameberry has a list of name predictions for 2012.  I think it's kind of silly to try to predict what people will name their kids because sometimes a name surges out of nowhere, and sometimes it experiences a slow climb.  WDYT?

That said, I do really like some of their picks:

Girls:

Charlotte
Amelia
Violet
Scarlett

Boys:

Henry
Finn
Jude
Asher

Comments

[sparklymoon.livejournal.com]

I like Charlotte and Scarlett, but could never use them together (maybe as middle names). Amelia is my cousin's name so that's off the table; Violet,Adelaide and Isla are not my style at all.

I love Henry but I know it's getting too popular. Not a fan of any of the other boys' names except maybe Jasper (but it's a little old-fashioned/Road to Avonlea)

[sparklymoon.livejournal.com]

I guess it would help if I looked at the whole list... I like Felix and Lila, but I don't think I would use them.

[pleasure-past.livejournal.com]

First of all, I luled really hard when the intro talked about how you shouldn't worry about top names from the year before because your child is never going to interact with those kids. It's not like kids born in November and kids born in April of the next year are usually put into the same class in the US (and just about any other northern-hemisphere countries') school system or anything. And never mind, you know, every other aspect of the child's life from birth to death. Day care? Job applications? Phone books? Those will only happen with people born in the same year.

Honestly, the top 100 names change very little from year to year. For the most part, the names stay the same and just get rearranged. Dramatic changes take place of decades. If Seraphina goes from not even being in the top 999 girls names in the US in 2010 (according to Behind the Name) to being the #2 girls name 2012, I'll eat my hat. It just is not going to happen. I'm betting on last years' rankings being much closer to this years' rankings than Nameberry's estimates.

What Nameberry isn't taking into account is that a lot of the people going onto their site aren't expecting parents. Look at the demographics of this comm.: Sure, some of us are expecting parents (usually expecting mothers) but a lot of are writers, parents who already have children and aren't planning on having any more [this year], people looking for names for their pets, and childless or even childfree people who just like talking about names.

Even those that are expecting parents often at least start out with very long lists of names that they're considering. If Seraphina makes it onto the list of 100 people at first, but then gets eliminated from 90 of those lists before the baby is born, and Isabella makes it onto 50 lists but only gets eliminated from 25 of them before the baby is born, Isabella is going to remain the more popular name.

Nameberry also isn't considering that expecting parents are more likely to look some names up than others. Lots of people are going to name their sons Cameron or Jayden or Jackson without ever considering the meaning or origin of those names. The people who are interested in meanings and origins of names are much more likely to go for Felix, Milo, or Jasper, but those people are not the majority that Nameberry is thinking they are.

By the way, of the top ten names they predicted, I really like Amelia, Asher, Henry, Oliver, James, and Jude. Henry is the only one I would consider for one of my children, for various reasons, but I really like them.

[daydream11.livejournal.com]

This. I've learned to take the surrounding years into account when deciding just how popular a name is and will be, along with recent cultural phenomenons. It's not so cut-and-dry as the author makes the situation out to be. For god's sake, names like Jasmine, Brianna, and Ashley are still around, and they surged into stardom in the 90s.

[daydream11.livejournal.com]

I love the names Henry and Jude. If I ever have sons, those will be on my short list automatically. They are so classy.

[starcrossed.livejournal.com]

My predictions:
Charlotte (I work in a primary school and know of at least 3 Charlotte's in the school)
Seraphina (because of the Ben Affleck/Jen Garner thing)
Atticus
Oliver (see my last post!)

[nobodynomore.livejournal.com]

I love Finn & Asher. If I had a boy I'd consider them.

[kitchen-poet.livejournal.com]

I think I read on their list (or maybe babynamewizard blog?) that Lila is going to be huge. And suddenly I'm seeing Lila or soon-to-be Lilas everywhere!

Also, some of our friends just had a baby named Violet in August. Scarlet was their second choice...

[hermione-vader.livejournal.com]

You summed it all up much better than I ever could.

Yeah, sometimes names get shuffled around, but it does take the better part of a decade (or more) for a name to rise into or fall out of favor.

What Nameberry isn't taking into account is that a lot of the people going onto their site aren't expecting parents. Look at the demographics of this comm.: Sure, some of us are expecting parents (usually expecting mothers) but a lot of are writers, parents who already have children and aren't planning on having any more [this year], people looking for names for their pets, and childless or even childfree people who just like talking about names.

I have to wonder if it's more the author of the article not taking that into account, not Nameberry itself. The author seems to think this thing is a sort of name-gospel.

About searching for vs. choosing names, sporcle.com has this quiz (http://www.sporcle.com/games/dwiens/girl2010) about the most searched-for girls' names in 2010, and a bunch of other quizzes about the most popular chosen names of 2010, and the order of the names is very, very different in each list. Also, Scarlett, Lila, and Isla aren't even in the top 100 and Amelia isn't in the Top 10 (in the USA, at least; it's about #9 in the UK).

Also, I just checked Nameberry's homepage, and it lists "Today's Most Popular Names" (searched for), which include Polexia, Kinsley, and Huckleberry. I doubt those are getting into the Top 100 any time soon.

[being-lola-star.livejournal.com]

Damn it I'm hoping Atticus doesn't get popular. I'm saving it for when I have children (WAY down the road). It a really darling name that's easily recognizable but not where near common enough to make him one of eight or nine Atticuses. I hope!

[how-obscure.livejournal.com]

Of their top ten for each sex, I like Charlotte, Adelaide, Alice, Jasper, Oliver, James, Jude, and Felix.

I can see many of these names rising a fair bit, but as others have said, jumping radically in one year seems unlikely.

[mirhanda.livejournal.com]

When I named my kids, NO ONE had those names. They were just unheard of. Now, they are everywhere. At least they weren't so popular when my kids were in school though, haha! Even the name I had picked for a possible third kid that I decided not to have has shot up the charts! I guess I'm good at predicting naming trends 20 years into the future!

[mirhanda.livejournal.com]

I play RPGs and I'm always looking for character names. Not only that but I just have a general interest in names and did even long before I had children. I have actually considered writing a book on names.

[hermione-vader.livejournal.com]

Well, names go through cycles of un/popularity. Which of the names did you choose?

[my-little-voice.livejournal.com]

ooooh I really like all of those, but fortunately none of them are my top choice.